UEFA set to confirm Euro expansion

UEFA are set to rubber-stamp an expansion of the European Championship finals from 16 to 24 teams this week - a move that will limit the number of countries able to host the tournament.

The decision, to be taken by UEFA's executive committee at their meeting in Bordeaux on Thursday and Friday, follows a proposal by the Scottish FA and Football Association of Ireland last year.

Scottish FA chief executive Gordon Smith told PA Sport: "I think the expansion will be better for the game - more teams will have the chance of qualifying and the excitement of the groups will go on for longer."

He added: "It is disappointing in that it means we will not be able to stage the tournament in the future, and we recognise that will be the case.

"It was a trade-off between trying to stage it or open up the qualification process and we have decided to look at something that helps everybody."

It will take effect from the 2016 finals and has drawn virtually unanimous support from the 53 member countries.

Smith said the proposal had not been an attempt merely to make it easier for Scotland to qualify for a major finals.

He added: "It will make if easier but it will make it easier for other countries such as England who failed to qualify for Euro 2008. We didn't do it specifically for that purpose however."

UEFA are also expected to announce that Poland and Ukraine will be kept as Euro 2012 joint hosts but will be warned they have to keep to strict deadlines for their construction projects.

The leaders of European football's ruling body will also authorise the budget for a special investigation unit to target match-fixing and corruption in football.

- Search: UEFA European Championships

Related Links

UEFA's official website

Rising sea levels: What will happen to you?

Sea levels in the Thames estuary are likely to rise by up to 90cm by the end of the century, scientists said.

Research for the Environment Agency predicted likely sea level rises of between 8in (20cm) and 35in (90cm) as a result of melting glaciers and polar ice-caps and warming of the oceans.

At the most extreme, sea levels could rise by up to 6ft (2m) - which along with a storm surge could produce a worst case scenario of a water level rise of 9ft (2.7m), the Met Office said.

This new worst-case prediction is significantly lower than previous scenarios of rises of up to 14ft (4.2m) - which means an outer barrage in the Thames estuary to keep the tide out will not be necessary to protect the South East this century.

The research also found climate change was less likely to increase the frequency and size of storm surges in the North Sea than previously thought.

The research by the Met Office Hadley Centre, the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology was released at a climate change conference at the University of Exeter.

The study said the volume of freshwater at peak times in the River Thames could increase by around 40% by 2080 in places such as Kingston.

The research will feed into the Environment Agency's Thames Estuary 2100 project to plan for future flood management in the estuary.

Tim Reeder, regional climate change programme manager for the Environment Agency Thames region, said: "By narrowing previous uncertainty, we now have an improved understanding of how climate change will affect the Thames estuary and can develop realistic and cost-effective options, which will meet future needs."

More News:

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Climate change 'threatening trees'
Nature's budget 'has run out'

- Search: Thames estuary climate change

Projecção aponta para duplicação da população idosa até 2046

A projecção do INE de que em 2046 haverá 238 idosos por cada 100 jovens, o dobro dos valores actuais, leva especialistas a considerarem que as escolas devem dar aulas sobre envelhecimento e preparar os mais novos para a sua própria velhice. Segundo as projecções do Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE), em 2046 a proporção de população jovem reduzir-se-á 13 por cento e a população idosa aumentará dos actuais 17,2 por cento para 31 por cento.

Neste cenário, agravar-se-á o processo de envelhecimento da população portuguesa expresso no índice de envelhecimento, que é hoje de 112 idosos por cada 100 jovens e em 2046 será de 238 pessoas com mais de 65 anos por cada 100 até aos 14 anos.

Perante estas projecções, a docente e investigadora do Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas da Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (ISCSP/UTL) defendeu quarta-feira (dia 28), em declarações à agência Lusa, que as escolas deviam dar aulas de gerontologia (estudo do envelhecimento) aos jovens para lhes explicar que “ser idoso não tem de ser um fardo” e educá-los para uma velhice activa.

Num país em que a esperança de vida à nascença e aos 65 anos é cada vez maior, os mais velhos são considerados “um fardo e um custo em toda a ordem em termos de equipamentos sociais e dos hospitais”, disse à Lusa Stella António.

Os dados mais recentes do Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE), relativos a 2006, indicam que o Alentejo é a região do país mais envelhecida, com 102.042 jovens (até aos 14 anos) contra 175.061 idosos (22,9 por cento do total da população).

No lado oposto estão as regiões autónomas, onde há mais jovens que idosos: nos Açores existem 46.904 jovens e 30.198 idosos (12,4 por cento da população) e na Madeira há 44.283 crianças até aos 14 anos e 32.274 pessoas com mais de 65 anos, que perfazem 13,1 por cento do total da população madeirense.

População europeia projecção

Segundo a projecção do Eurostat, em 2015 o envelhecimento da União será um facto, as mortes serão superiores aos nascimentos. Uma das tábuas de salvação da europa será a emigração por isso será bom saber acolher quem nos vai salvar.

Eurostat - nota de imprensa:

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/portal/docs/PAGE/PGP_PRD_CAT_PREREL/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008_MONTH_08/3-26082008-EN-AP.PDF

Eurostat:

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1090,30070682,1090_33076576&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Governo acredita que identificar motivos de abuso ajuda a combater alcoolismo

O governo britânico está lançando uma nova campanha contra o alcoolismo dirigida a nove 'tipos' mais comuns de usuários que abusam do álcool.

A campanha será feita a partir de uma pesquisa do Departamento de Saúde da Inglaterra, que indicou as nove categorias mais comuns de bebedores. Elas incluem os que o fazem para aliviar estresse e pessoas deprimidas que bebem por tédio ou para se relacionar.

Para o governo, identificar as razões que levam usuários a abusar do álcool será "muito útil" para combater o alcoolismo.

O estudo se debruçou sobre homens que bebem mais de 50 unidades semanais de álcool e mulheres que bebem pelo menos 35 unidades semanais – duas vezes acima do limite recomendado.

Uma unidade de álcool equivale a um copo de cerveja ou vinho ou, alternativamente, meia dose de bebida destilada.



Tipos



Entre os nove tipos identificados, estão, por exemplo, os que bebem para desestressar e relaxar, em meio a uma rotina de pressão no trabalho.

Em outros casos, usuários abusam do álcool ao se perder em um estilo de vida agitado e por vezes extravagante.

As informações serão utilizadas pelo governo para orientar uma campanha contra o alcoolismo que deve atingir 4 mil bebedores contumazes no nordeste do país, em um projeto-piloto que, se bem sucedido nos próximos meses, será levado para o resto do pais.

A secretária britânica de Saúde, Dawn Primarolo, admitiu que os bebedores incluídos nas nove categorias têm em comum um problema "difícil de combater".

Mas ela disse acreditar que a nova abordagem será capaz de convencer os usuários a ser agentes da própria mudança.

"Esta é uma abordagem totalmente nova de fazer as pessoas entenderem os efeitos de seus hábitos em relação à bebida e de ajudá-las a mudar para melhor."


Veja abaixo os nove tipos de bebedores identificados pela campanha.



OS TIPOS DE BEBEDORES



Tipo: O deprimidoCaracterística:

Está com a vida em um estado de crise - atravessando um período de dificuldade financeira, luto ou divórcio recente, por exemplo.Motivações: Vê o álcool como uma forma de se reconfortar ou como uma automedicação para ajudar a lidar com as turbulências.



Tipo: O estressadoCaracterística:

Leva uma vida sob pressão no trabalho, o que normalmente leva ao sentimento de não ter as coisas sob controle ou de estar sobrecarregado de responsabilidades.Motivações: O álcool é uma forma de relaxar e de retomar a sensação de controle, ao traçar uma linha entre vida pessoal e profissional. Os parceiros normalmente reforçam este comportamento, ao preparar drinques para os bebedores.



Tipo: O 'social'Característica:

Têm uma agenda social carregada.Motivações: O álcool é um meio de ligação que unifica a todos e os coloca em uma mesma sintonia.



Tipo: O conformistaCaracterística:

Tipicamente, rapazes tradicionalistas que crêem que 'homens vão ao bar todas as noites'.Motivações: O álcool faz parte do que definem como 'meu momento'. O bar é sua segunda casa, e eles se sentem aceitos e em casa neste ambiente.



Tipo: O bebedor comunitárioCaracterística:

Bebe em grandes grupos sociais.Motivações: Levado ao álcool pelo senso de comunidade criado pelo ambiente do bar. A bebida dá segurança e significado à vida, e age como meio social.



Tipo: O entediadoCaracterística:

Tipicamente, mães solteiras ou mulheres recém-divorciadas, com vida social restrita. Motivações: A bebida é uma companhia que substitui o casal. Beber marca o final do dia, talvez encerrando um jornada de obrigações.



Tipo: O machão Característica:

Normalmente se sente subvalorizado, sem voz e frustrado em áreas importantes da vida.Motivações: Seu lado bebedor é um alter-ego que gira em torno da sua capacidade de beber. A bebida é motivada pela necessidade constante de reafirmar sua masculinidade e seu status em relação a outras pessoas.

Tipo: O hedonista Característica:

Solteiros, divorciados ou com filhos crescidos. Motivações: Beber em excesso é uma forma de expressar a sua independência, liberdade e juventude para si mesmo. O álcool é usado para diminuir inibições.

Tipo:O quase dependente Característica:

Homens que moram 'de facto' no bar – que, para eles, é quase o mesmo que estar em casa. Motivações: Uma combinação de motivos, incluindo tédio, necessidade de se conformar e uma sensação de mal-estar existencial nas suas vidas.

10 Países com a maior população de cães no mundo

1º. E U A: 61 milhões
2º. Brazil: 30 milhões
3º. China: 22 milhões
4º. Japan/Rússia: 9,6 milhões
5º. South Africa: 9,1 milhões
6º. France: 8,1 milhões
7º. Italy: 7,6 milhões
8º. Poland: 7,5 milhões
9º. Thailand: 6,9 milhões
10º. U K: 6 milhões

Ranking dos países mais corruptos do mundo

O site da Transparency Internacional (TI) apresenta o ranking dos países mais corruptos do mundo.

Os mais corruptos: Haiti, Birmânia, Iraque, Guiné e Sudão. O Brasil aparece na 70ª colocação e Portugal na 26ª.

De acordo com a tabela da TI, quanto mais alto o número associado ao país, mas alto é seu índice de corrupção.

28 Meia Maratona de Viseu

Realizou-se 14 de Setembro a 28.º Meia Maratona de Viseu, o vencedor foi o Antonio Salvador (1h06m12s) na prova masculina. Ines Monteiro (1h20m52s) na prova feminina.

Clic mas categorias abaixo indicadas

GERAL
VENCEDOR_POR_ESCALAO
SENIORES
VETERANOS_I
VETERANOS_II
VETERANOS_III
VETERANOS_IV
VETERANOS_V
VETERANOS_VI
FEMININOS
PARAOLIMPICOS

Dental Calculator

Are your teeth older than you?

Did you know that your lifestyle as well as your dental regime could be adding years to your overall appearance, making you look much older than you actually are? Take the quick quiz below to find out if your teeth are ageing you.


DENTAL_CALCULATOR

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale

Intensity Scale is used to categorize hurricane strength and potential damage. Public broadcasts generally include a hurricane’s category. This table shows the parameters (wind speed and storm surge), criteria, and expected damage of each category of hurricane. Note: Damage descriptions are provided in NOAA's "Hurricane and Disaster Brochure". Click a damage level below for a description.





Category Wind Speed Storm Surge Damage

Km/hr mi/hr m ft


1 119-154 74-95 1-2 4-5 Minimal
2 155-178 96-110 2-3 6-8 Moderate
3 179-210 111-130 3-4 9-12 Extensive
4 211-250 131-155 4-6 13-18 Extreme
5 >250 >155 >6 >18 Catastrophic

Click Table of Contents when finished looking at descriptions

Damage Hurricanes Cause--Winds and Storm Surges

Damage-Causing Winds

Hurricanes produce damaging surface winds and storm surges. While high winds cause significant structural and environmental damage, storm surges are frequently the most devastating element of a hurricane.

Storm Surges

A storm surge is a rise in sea level along a coastline caused by the combination of a hurricane's surface winds and the physical geography of a coastline. Surface winds above the ocean's surface push water toward the hurricane's eye, creating a mound of water. The mound of water is then influenced by the slope of the coastline as the hurricane approaches land. If the coastline is shallow, water cannot flow away from the mound and the mound grows. If the coastline is deep, water can disperse and the mound may grow slowly or disperse depending on hurricane strength. An example of a shallow-water coastline is the Gulf Coast while an example of a deep-water coastline is found in New England.

Shallow-water Coastline

Deep-water Coastline

Each of the animations above depicts surge dynamics in action. As you watch the storm-surge animations, notice the effect that the physical geography of each coastline has on storm surge. Also note the waves on top of the ocean's surface. Wind, waves, and sea-level rise all contribute to storm-surge damage


The greatest storm-surge damage is to the right of a hurricane's eye (as you face the shoreline) in the Northern Hemisphere. It occurs to the right of the eye because winds, ocean waves, and sea-level rise are all moving in an onshore direction. In contrast, to the left of the eye, ocean waves and sea-level rise are moving in an onshore direction, but the winds are blowing in an offshore direction. The offshore direction of the winds moderates the effect of the storm surge. You will explore this idea in the Explore Hurricanes section with Hurricane Opal as it comes ashore.

Why Do Hurricanes Form and Where Are They Found?

Hurricanes form and intensify over oceanic regions. They require sea-surface temperatures of at least 26°C (80°F) and the influence of the earth’s rotation to initiate a spinning circulation (Coriolis effect).

The adjacent map shows the places on earth where these conditions are met for hurricane formation. Hurricanes generally form at the tail of the arrow and typically track following the arrow to its arrowhead.

In North America, we call a storm that results from these conditions a hurricane. In other parts of the world, a hurricane is known by other names, including "typhoon" in the Western North Pacific and "tropical cyclone" in the Indian Ocean and the Western South Pacific.

What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane is an intense, rotating oceanic weather system that possesses maximum sustained winds exceeding 119 km/hr (74 mph). It forms and intensifies over tropical oceanic regions.

Hurricanes are generally smaller than storms in mid-latitudes, typically about 500 km (311 miles) in diameter. At the ocean’s surface, the air spirals inward in a counterclockwise direction. This cyclonic circulation becomes weaker with height, eventually turning into clockwise (anticyclonic) outflow near the top of the storm.

Hanna is in, Ike is coming

Tropical Storm Hanna made landfall on the South Carolina/North Carolina border at 3:20 am Saturday morning. Now all eyes starting to watch Ike very carefully

Hanna_is_in,_Ike_is_coming

Hurricane on Katrina anniversary

On the same day that New Orleans residents marked the three-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's wrath, another storm strengthened into a hurricane miles away and threatened to hit the US Gulf Coast once again.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre said that Gustav had grown into a Category 1 hurricane, and remained on track to strike anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to eastern Texas sometime next week.

The news came only hours after New Orleans lay to rest the last seven unclaimed Katrina victims.

A horse-drawn carriage brought the bodies for entombment at a memorial site, and the mayor helped guide a gleaming coffin into a mausoleum.

Gustav has been blamed for 71 deaths on its path through Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica.

Along the Gulf Coast, officials were preparing for the possibility of major evacuations should the storm stay on track.

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour had already called for the evacuation of Katrina-scarred residents still living in trailers and other temporary housing along the state's 70-mile coastline.
The mayor of Grand Isle, Louisiana, also called for voluntary evacuations.

In New Orleans, the Katrina anniversary ceremonies were tinged with an awareness of how far the city has come since Katrina, but also a trepidation about the possibility of another storm.
New forecasts made it clear that the city will get some kind of hit by early next week.



Hurricane Track

Hurricane_Gustav



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ERUPÇÕES VULCÂNICAS - Planos de emergência "arrumados na gaveta"

No Arquipélago dos Açores ocorrem três erupções vulcânicas por século mas os planos de emergência estão "fechados nas gavetas e não são discutidos publicamente", lamenta Victor Hugo Forjaz, director do Observatório Vulcanológico e Geotérmico dos Açores.
"As autoridades governamentais e autárquicas não acreditam que um vulcão possa entrar em actividade nos Açores. Acreditam nos sismos, porque os sentem, mas não acreditam que podemos ter acontecimentos vulcânicos de repercussões importantes", assinalou o vulcanólogo.
Segundo o investigador, nos tempos que correm é possível "atenuar fortemente" as consequências de uma erupção vulcânica "através de construções e equipamentos, bem como realizando ensaios e testes para essas situações críticas", mas não é isso que acontece.
"Depois de Capelinhos, que causou uma onda migratória para os Estados Unidos, já houve vários vulcões. Ninguém acreditava em Capelinhos até 1957 mas depois ocorreu Velas/Rosais, em São Jorge, e Serreta" recordou.
No caso de Rosais, ocorreu uma crise sísmica entre 1962 e 1964 com origem num centro eruptivo situado cerca de 1,5 milhas a Sudoeste da Ponta dos Rosais, enquanto a Crista Submarina da Serreta, localizada cerca de 10 quilómetros a Oeste da ilha Terceira, entrou em erupção em 1998.
Porém, "a memória é curta para os desastres e cinco ou seis anos depois só as famílias atingidas é que se lembram", afirmou Victor Forjaz à agência Lusa, sublinhando que os vulcões das Furnas, Fogo e Sete Cidades (todos na Ilha de São Miguel), assim como a Caldeira do Faial, "têm todas as características de um dia poderem voltar a acordar".
"Os cientistas sabem que três vezes por século há um vulcão que entra em actividade no Arquipélago" mas "após Capelinhos, São Jorge e Serreta entrámos num período de adormecimento mental, do género «já que não houve nada de grave até agora, também não vai haver nada de grave no futuro»", comentou.
Por isso, e embora os municípios tenham "planos de emergência feitos de acordo com a lei", estes estão "fechados nas gavetas e não são discutidos publicamente", censura o director do Observatório Vulcanológico e Geotérmico dos Açores.
Criticando a actuação "passiva e miserabilista" dos municípios, "que só fazem ensaios sísmicos, não fazem ensaios vulcanológicos", o responsável do Observatório considera que a população dos Açores não está preparada para o dia em que um vulcão entre em erupção no Arquipélago, onde apenas a Ilha de Santa Maria está comprovadamente a salvo de reactivações.
"No caso de ocorrer uma erupção nas Sete Cidades, a população de Ponta Delgada não sabe onde ir buscar pão, onde conseguir um helicóptero, onde passar a noite", afirmou Victor Hugo Forjaz, segundo quem, nos Açores, "não há uma cultura de protecção civil, há sempre a esperança de que Nosso Senhor e os santos hão-de proteger esta gente".


Novo ciclo geológico


Os vulcões existentes em Portugal continental estão extintos mas o planeta pode estar a entrar num novo ciclo geológico, com uma zona de subducção a sudoeste da Península Ibérica, e a actividade vulcânica não está excluída.
"Com base na distribuição dos sismos, há quem diga que podemos estar a entrar num novo ciclo geológico, que poderá ter como consequência o vulcanismo", afirmou o geólogo José Francisco à agência Lusa.
Na origem do processo estará um fenómeno de subducção, ou seja o mergulho de uma placa sob outra - no caso concreto, da placa oceânica sob a placa continental, em cujo extremo está Portugal - explicou o investigador da Universidade de Aveiro.
De uma forma genérica, o efeito pode ser visto em http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zona_de_subducção.
O investigador alertou, todavia, que - a confirmar-se esta tese - "o vulcanismo apenas se manifestará dentro de milhões de anos", pois a própria subducção leva muito tempo a concretizar-se.
No continente, a actividade vulcânica mais recente tem já cerca de 70 milhões de anos e registou-se no Complexo Vulcânico de Lisboa, cujos 200 quilómetros quadrados se estendem da capital a Torres Vedras, passando por Cascais, Sintra ou Mafra (onde permanece uma chaminé vulcânica de basalto, o Penedo de Lexim).
"Apesar de o complexo estar extinto há tanto tempo, ainda há uma chaminé vulcânica junto à antena da televisão em Monsanto, como houve em Alcabideche", indicou Victor Hugo Forjaz, director do Observatório Vulcanológico e Geotérmico dos Açores, acrescentando que muitos vestígios foram, ao longo dos anos, "cobertos pelo casario, pelos bairros".
Um vulcão é declarado extinto se não teve manifestações exteriores de actividade nos últimos 10 mil anos "e quando os estudos científicos demonstram que debaixo dele não há calor, não há magma que o possa alimentar", explicou Victor Forjaz, acrescentando que "é considerado adormecido se teve erupções recentes ou se tem, à superfície, manifestações de actividade", como fumarolas.
Segundo o especialista, a actividade vulcânica é anunciada "pelo aumento da temperatura do solo com meses de antecedência, pelo aumento da sismicidade e pela variação dos campos magnético e gravimétrico, que são indícios de perigo".
E o que causa uma erupção vulcânica? "O acumular de energias durante um certo número de séculos e factores externos, como uma conjugação de fases da lua e do sol e a existência de forças laterais e verticais na crosta terrestre", esclareceu o director do Observatório.
"Mas todos os investigadores concordam que não há hipótese de os vulcões entrarem em actividade no continente", assinalou, numa posição reiterada por José Francisco, da Universidade de Aveiro, que indicou à Lusa mais alguns vestígios de vulcanismo.
"Na Faixa Piritosa Ibérica, que abrange o Baixo Alentejo e continua para Espanha, o vulcanismo submarino teve forte expressão no início do período Carbónico (360 a 300 milhões de anos), levando à formação de jazigos minerais como a mina de Neves Corvo, a mais importante em actividade em Portugal", exemplificou.

Via Oceânica 2007

Portugal 3 - 1 Czech Republic Highlights

Portugal 3 - 1 Czech Republic Highlights

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PORTUGAL 2 - TURKEY 0

PORTUGAL__TURKEY

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FORCA PORTUGAL

Portugal no Coracao

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Pedido de sangue!

Por motivo de doença grave, um amigo está hospitalizado à espera de ser operado.

Ainda não o foi porque tem um sangue raro (B-).

Pede-se a quem tenha este tipo de sangue que contacte com urgência: Luisde Carvalho - 931085403 Pedro Leal Ribeiro - 222041893 Fax: 222059125 Se não puderes ajudar, por favor ..

Não custa nada passar

HOJE POR ELE AMANHA POR TI

Fernando Jorge Gonçalves

Dep. Lab. Hospital Militar Porto

hi5 - Armindo

hi5 - Armindo

Has global warming peaked?

The scientific consensus is that the planet is still getting hotter. But the global temperature has not exceeded the 1998 record.

So how do we know whether we are in the middle of a blip or if the warming trend has stopped?
And how do scientists measure the global temperature anyway?

Tim Harford speaks to: Peter Cockroft, BBC weather forecaster;Dr Peter Stott of the Met Office;James D. Annan, Frontier Research Centre for Global Change, Japan;David Whitehouse, former BBC science editor and the author of The Sun: A Biography (John Wiley, 2005).



UK's pub capital

Presenter Tim Harford always thought that the UK town with the highest concentration of pubs was St Albans in Hertfordshire. Then someone told him it was Chesterfield in Derbyshire.

Tim wondered how many other towns claim to be our pub capital so asked listeners at the end of last week's programme which towns they believed had the most pubs for their size.
These are just some of the answers we received:

Glasgow, Otley North Yorkshire, Brigg North Yorkshire, Bewdley Worcestershire, Witney Oxfordshire, Chopwell Tyne and Wear, Glastonbury, Lancaster, Abingdon Oxfordshire, Saffron Walden Essex, St Albans, Beeston Nottinghamshire, Bollington Cheshire, Weymouth Dorset, Wareham Dorset, Hazel Grove Cheshire, Tadcaster N.Yorks, Beverley Yorkshire, Newton Stuart Dumfries and Galloway, Southend, Llanwrtyd Wells Wales, St Davids Pembrokeshire, Manningtree Essex, Wantage Oxfordshire



Can Hillary win?

Some of Hillary Clinton's leading backers have said her victory at the recent Pennsylvania primary means she has improved her chances of winning the Democratic nomination for presidency.

But two US number-crunchers say the odds of her beating Barack Obama have just gone from slim to zero.

Chadwick Matlin of Slate magazine tells Tim Harford about his online delegate calculator and how it is predicting that Hillary does not stand a chance.

Visit Slate magazine's Delegate Calculator



Cereal for a boy?

Women who eat breakfast cereal around the time of conception are more likely than others to give birth to a boy, according to a new study.

The researchers analysed the diet of pregnant women to see if there was any link between food choices and the gender of the child.

But the researchers looked at the correlation between gender and over 100 different foods. So was the link between breakfast cereal and giving birth to a male merely the result random variation?

Our reporter Ruth Alexander has been looking at the statistical significance of the study's findings.


Courtesy from: BBC_More_or_Less

World population 'to rise by 40%'

The world's population is expected to rise from the current 6.5 billion to 9.1 billion by 2050, the UN says.

Virtually all the growth will be in the developing world, according to a report by the UN Population Division.

By contrast, the population of developed countries will remain almost static at 1.2 billion, the report adds.

It says India will overtake China as the world's most populous country by 2030 - five years earlier than previously expected.

The figures in the revised report are based on national censuses, population surveys and review of trends.

In 2002, the UN Population Division had estimated a population in 2050 of 8.9 billion.

'Buying time'

The new report predicts that the population in the world's 50 poorest countries will more than double by 2050.

It says that nations such as Afghanistan, Chad and East Timor will see their numbers going up three-fold.

"They are the ones not being able to provide adequate shelter, adequate food for all their people," Haina Zlotnik, the UN Population Division's chief, told a news conference in New York.

"If fertility dropped downwards, they would be buying time to face the problems they are facing," Ms Zlotnik said.

The report also says that Africa - unlike other regions - has seen average life expectancy at birth decline from 62 years in 1995 to 48 years in 2000-2005.

It attributes the sharp fall to the continuing spread of HIV/Aids and other infectious diseases, as well as armed conflicts and economic stagnation.

Lower fertility

However, the overall trend shows a lower rate of growth in the past 20 to 50 years.

"The population continues to grow but at a lower pace," said Thomas Buettner, author of the report.

"Family planning and lower fertility make the difference," he said.

Fertility is expected to decline from 2.6 children per woman today to slightly over 2 children per woman in 2050, the report says.

It is going to be a strain on the world
Haina Zlotnik, UN Population Division chief

O mapa com a fronteira só tracejada

Em vez de um risco grosso, um tracejado no mapa. Uma disputa fronteiriça entre a Índia e o Paquistão, a Eritreia e a Etiópia, o Chile e a Bolívia? Não! A desavença, velha de dois séculos e nunca claramente assumida nas cimeiras bilaterais, é entre Portugal e a Espanha, que não colocam marcos fronteiriços entre o rio Caia e a ribeira de Cuncos, o limite fronteiriço que não consta na cartografia oficial portuguesa nem em qualquer documento com o escudo nacional.

Eis o motivo que faz com que os cerca de 750 associados do Grupo dos Amigos de Olivença (GAO) - que assinalam sempre com ênfase o 1.º de Dezembro - continuem a pugnar para que o Estado Português prossiga o que consideram um "imperativo constitucional": a exigência de que Espanha cumpra o decidido no Congresso de Viena de 1815, isto é, a entrega do território de Olivença.

Na origem da polémica está a Guerra das Laranjas. Em 1801, com o apoio napoleónico, as tropas espanholas tomaram Olivença a 20 de Maio, no dia seguinte conquistaram Juromenha, cercaram Campo Maior e, depois, Elvas. Após duas semanas, Portugal pediu a paz e, a 6 de Junho, assinaria o Tratado de Badajoz, em que os territórios alentejanos eram restituídos, à excepção da praça de Olivença do seu território além-Guadiana, que ficavam espanhóis "em qualidade de conquista".

O documento, em que se selava uma paz eterna entre os dois Estados, seria considerado nulo se alguém violasse qualquer dos seus pontos. E como, em 1807, os espanhóis apoiaram a invasão francesa de Junot, um diploma do príncipe regente (futuro D. João VI, já no Rio de Janeiro, que era, à época, a capital portuguesa), o Manifesto de 1 de Maio de 1808, declara nulo e de nenhum vigor o anterior Tratado de Badajoz.

No Congresso de Viena de 1815, em que se reúnem França, Grã-Bretanha, Áustria, Prússia, Rússia, Suécia, Portugal e Espanha para se desenhar a nova ordem europeia após as Guerras Napoleónicas, o art. 105.º da Acta Final obrigava a Espanha (que só assinaria o documento em 1817) a devolver Olivença a Portugal.

O actual presidente do GAO, Teixeira Marques, sustenta ao DN que aquele grupo de cidadãos pretende o mesmo que tem sido sempre "a política oficial do Estado Português" neste tema, mas insistindo para que o assunto "se reponha em cima da mesa das negociações diplomáticas".

Evocando a História e o Direito Internacional, lembra que o Manifesto de 1808 "nunca foi revogado por qualquer outro documento jurídico idêntico" e que as autoridades nacionais continuam, em seu entender, vinculadas a esse diploma. Além disso, alega que o art. 5.º-1 da Constituição de 1976 - "Portugal abrange o território historicamente definido no continente europeu" - só se entende por ter, implícita, uma alusão a Olivença. E acrescenta que esta tese é subscrita pelos principais constitucionalistas, de Jorge Miranda a Gomes Canotilho.

Neste contexto, admite Teixeira Marques, "não sugerimos que se faça um referendo em Olivença ou se recorra a um tribunal arbitral, que a questão seja debatida no âmbito da ONU ou em Bruxelas", pois isso compete aos legítimos representantes do País. Os Amigos de Olivença insistem é na necessidade do tema integrar a agenda da nossa diplomacia e ser abordado entre os dois Estados.

Parecem distantes, pois, os tempos em que o presidente do GAO era o almirante Pinheiro de Azevedo (primeiro-ministro do VI Governo Provisório e candidato na eleição presidencial de 1976), que publicou um livro com o título Olivença Está Cativa Pela Espanha - Por Culpa de Quem? Olivença! Gibraltar! Malvinas! e sugeriu uma "marcha verde" para libertar a cidade.

E, no entanto, o actual presidente - ou qualquer outro membro dos corpos dirigentes do GAO, onde há gente do CDS ao BE, "com cartão passado", incluindo votantes no PCP, PS e PSD - acredita que, com um período razoável para se fazer um referendo (três ou quatro anos, de forma a criar um "estado de espírito pró-português"), seria "estultícia considerar que o resultado era pró-espanhol". E vai mais longe: "Se, por hipótese, se decidisse fazer uma consulta aos oliventinos já depois de amanhã, haveria 4%, 5% ou 10% que votavam para serem portugueses".

Perante o cepticismo, Teixeira Marques avança vários argumentos, invocando testemunhos de gente humilde e obras de pessoas letradas, visitas a casas onde os antigos denunciam o seu bilinguismo nas canções de embalar e e-mails de jovens que querem perceber por que motivo "não são iguais aos de Badajoz". "O tempo jogou contra Portugal - até porque o homem comum não conhece a História -, mas agora já não joga. A erosão que o tempo podia fazer está feita: ou conseguiu a castelhanização ou, então, num tempo de globalização, já não o consegue."

E o presidente dos Amigos de Olivença lembra as fases em que Madrid aumentou a aculturação: em 1805, as actas da câmara começaram a ser em castelhano e, em 1840, o uso do português foi proibido nas liturgias e os padres passaram a falar na língua dos funcionários, professores e magistrados, persistindo o português só entre a população rural. No franquismo, que tentou erradicar o basco, o catalão e o galego, não se podia falar português na rua, sob pena de serem aplicadas coimas aos delinquentes linguísticos. Entretanto, a par da escolaridade obrigatória na língua oficial, a rádio e a televisão acentuaram a presença do castelhano no quotidiano.

A questão de Olivença, que muita gente em Portugal considera uma bizantinice, tem afinidades com as polémicas que, oficialmente, Madrid mantém com Londres, a propósito de Gibraltar, e Rabat com Madrid, sobre Ceuta e Melilla. Afinal, o título do polémico livro lançado em 2003 pelo embaixador espanhol Máximo Cajal era Ceuta, Melilla, Olivenza y Gibraltar. Donde termina España. E até o site da CIA, na página dedicada a Espanha, acrescentou há uns anos que "Portugal não reconhece a soberania espanhola sobre o território de Olivença, com base em diferentes interpretações do Congresso de Viena de 1815 e do Tratado de Badajoz de 1801" .

E, enquanto aponta para o mapa pendurado numa parede da sede dos Amigos de Olivença, em Lisboa, Teixeira Marques cita uma frase escrita por Henrique Barrilaro Ruas: "Olivença é a chaga do lado no coração de Portugal."

Copyright © 2003 Grupo dos Amigos de Olivença

Sabia que...................

Um carro que percorre uma estrada a 80 km/h gasta metade de seu combustível para vencer a resistência do vento.

- O vinho branco surgiu de mutações nas uvas usadas para a versão tinta da bebida.

- O animal que causa maior número de mortes na população humana é o mosquito.

- Na volta à Terra, um astronauta pode estar até cinco cm mais alto, pois a ausência de gravidade faz os discos de cartilagem e da espinha dorsal se expandirem.

- Um jogador profissional de xadrez analisa três posições em um segundo, enquanto certos computadores analisam mais de 200 000 000 de posições no mesmo período.

Projectos de artistas residentes em Viseu em destaque na programação do Teatro Viriato

Viseu, 05 Jan (Lusa) - Projectos de artistas que se fixaram em Viseu e que envolvem a comunidade marcam a programação do Teatro Viriato para o primeiro trimestre de 2008, com destaque para a estreia de "Mexe-te", da actriz e encenadora Rafaela Santos.

"Cada vez mais vamos sedimentando uma comunidade artística que se vai fixando nesta cidade", congratulou-se o director geral e de programação do Teatro Viriato, Paulo Ribeiro, aludindo a Rafaela Santos, Romulus Neagu e Graeme Pulleyn.

Explicou que se tratam de artistas que optaram por viver em Viseu "por causa da dinâmica concertada" que existe entre o Teatro Viriato e a Companhia Paulo Ribeiro, juntando as suas vocações de "apresentação, residência, pedagógica e de criação".

O espectáculo de teatro "Mexe-te" tem estreia absoluta marcada para 01 de Fevereiro, contando a história de pessoas "que pertencem à mesma família e grupo de amigos e que, num determinado momento das suas vidas, entram numa espiral de memórias".

"É um trabalho que envolve a comunidade no sentido em que se inspira muito na comunidade não só de Viseu mas de toda a região", explicou Paulo Ribeiro.

A 22 de Fevereiro o coreógrafo Romulus Neagu apresenta "A invisibilidade das pequenas percepções" (título provisório), espectáculo com o qual, "utilizando o corpo como um canal de comunicação da interioridade", tenta, "mais uma vez, promover a emancipação do indivíduo através da simplicidade do movimento".

Trata-se do encontro de dois tipos de pessoas que habitualmente não sobem a palco: uma com deficiência, José António Correia, e outra proveniente de um lar de reinserção social, Ana Isabel Gomes.

Paulo Ribeiro lembrou que, com "A invisibilidade das pequenas percepções", Romulus Neagu dá continuidade ao seu projecto de trabalhar "com pessoas de meios mais difíceis ou com dificuldades", tendo conseguido a co-produção do Teatro Nacional S. João, onde estreará.

Pelo terceiro ano consecutivo, o Teatro Viriato participa também no projecto PANOS - Palcos Novos, Palavras Novas, promovido pela Culturgest, cabendo a Graeme Pulleyn, antigo director do Teatro Regional da Serra de Montemuro (Castro Daire), a encenação do texto "Escudos Humanos", de Patrícia Portela.

O trabalho com os jovens decorrerá nestes primeiros meses do ano, estreando o espectáculo em Maio.

Atendendo ao sucesso que disse ter sido a programação do último trimestre de 2007, Paulo Ribeiro decidiu "continuar a apostar em várias programações paralelas e transversais".

Neste âmbito, e numa tentativa de dar "mais regularidade" à dinamização do "foyer" do teatro, foi estabelecida uma parceria com a editora discográfica independente Borland, que a 17 de Janeiro realizará o concerto "Old Jerusalém", o primeiro de quatro até ao final do ano.

Paulo Ribeiro destacou também o espectáculo "Dúvida", que conta com a interpretação de Eunice Muñoz e Diogo Infante, que estará em palco cinco dias, entre 23 e 27 de Janeiro, ao invés dos habituais dias do fim-de-semana.

No que respeita à música, realçou também a presença no Teatro Viriato do projecto "Wraygunn" (15 de Fevereiro) e dos Mão Morta (07 e 08 de Março) e, na dança, Olga Roriz, pela primeira vez em Viseu, com a coreografia "Paraíso" (01 de Março).

O Teatro Viriato anunciou também ter aderido ao desafio da ACERT para constituir uma rede regional de públicos.

Está prevista a permuta de benefícios entre os sócios da ACERT, do Cine Clube de Viseu, os Amigos do Teatro Municipal da Guarda e os Amigos do Teatro Viriato.

Continente africano pode ficar sem Rali

A organização da prova está reunida, em Lisboa

A introdução de mudanças profundas na estrutura da prova está a ser equacionada, na sequência do anúncio, ontem, do cancelamento do rali Lisboa-Dakar. A anulação teve por base uma mensagem divulgada no dia 29 de Dezembro por um braço da al Qaeda no Magrebe.

Há um prejuízo de milhões de euros, provocado pela anulação do Lisboa-Dakar. Alguns pilotos podem não voltar a ter condições financeiras para entrar na prova. A organização está reunida para discutir indemnizações.

Clima de insegurança foi determinante para anulação da prova

O comunicado da al Qaeda “vem confirmar as motivações dos terroristas, autores dos assassinatos (dos quatros cidadãos franceses), bem como a mudança radical de estratégia implicada pela integração do Grupo Salafista para a Predicação e Combate da al Qaeda”, refere a Agência France Press, que cita uma fonte próxima do processo.

O braço da al Qaeda do Magrebe islâmico ameaçou atacar os franceses que entrassem no país, onde deveriam decorrer oito etapas da prova, e criticou a colaboração das autoridades com os “cruzados, os apóstatas e os infiéis”, segundo a Agência France Press.

O “clima de insegurança” que resultou da morte de quatro cidadãos franceses na Mauritânia na véspera de Natal terá sido determinante para a anulação da prova.

“Após diversas conversações com o Governo francês e, em especial com o Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros, levando em conta a sua firme recomendação, os organizadores do Dacar tomaram a decisão de anular a edição de 2008 do Rali”, explicou Etienne Lavigne, director da prova de todo-o-terreno.

“O Governo francês invocou razões de Estado para nos aconselhar formalmente a não dar a partida do Dakar. Acrescento que comunicados da al Qaeda no Magrebe citavam o Dakar. Não conheço o conteúdo desses comunicados mas o Quai d’Orsay tem-los em sua posse”, explicou o organizador francês.

Governo da Mauritânia critica decisão

O governo da Mauritânia criticou o cancelamento do Rali, considerando que a decisão representa uma cedência ao terrorismo.

Antes do cancelamento da prova, as autoridades do país chegaram a garantir a segurança da passagem da caravana do Lisboa-Dakar, mas os argumentos não convenceram a organização.

100% of people carry at least one type of pesticide from the air, water or food in their bodies

- A study carried out by the Department of Radiology and Physical Medicine at the University of Granada found that all subjects analyzed carried at least one kind of persistent organic compound (POC´s), substances internationally classified as potentially harmful to one’s health.- More pesticides, fungicides and insecticides were detected in women than in men, and in adults rather than younger people.

UGR News. A study carried out by researchers from the Department of Radiology and Physical Medicine of the University of Granada, in collaboration with the Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública, found that 100% of Spaniards analyzed had at least one kind of persistent organic compound (POC´s), substances internationally classified as potentially harmful to one’s health, in their bodies. These substances enter the body trough food, water or even air. All of them tend to accumulate in human adipose tissue and easily enter into the organism through the aforementioned mediums.

The study, conceived by Juan Pedro Arrebola Moreno and directed by professors Piedad Martín Olmedo, Nicolás Olea Serrano and Mariana F. Fernández Cabrera, measured the contamination levels of some persistent organic compounds (POC’s) in a sample of the adult population from two areas, an urban one (Granada capital city) and a semi-rural one (Motril), and intended to find the determining factors associated with such levels: diet, lifestyle, activities or residence.

A total of 387 adults, from both sexes, were volunteers for surgeries in hospitals taking part in the study (Santa Ana de Motril and San Cecilio de Granada hospital). Once the volunteers had given consent, a sample of their human adipose tissue (fat) was taken during surgery and they answered a questionnaire about their place of residence, lifestyle, eating habits and activities throughout their life.

Analysis of 6 POC´s
The researchers analyzed the samples and measured 6 different POC concentration levels: DDE, a principal metabolite in DDT (a pesticide used in Spain until the 80´s); hexachlorobenzene, a compound used as fungicide and currently released by industrial processes; PCB’s: compounds related to industrial processes; and Hexaclorociclohexano, used as an insecticide and currently used in scabies and pediculosis treatment.

The study carried out by the University of Granada concluded that 100% of subjects analyzed had DDE in their bodies, a substance banned in Spain, and other very frequent components such as PCB-153 (present in 92% of people), HCB (91%), PCB-180 (90%), PCB-138 (86%9) and HCH (84%).

Juan Pedro Arrebola Moreno explains that higher levels of toxic substances were detected in women compared to men and in older volunteers compared to younger people, “possibly due to the great persistence of these substances in the environment, which results in their biomagnification in the food chain and in their bioaccumulation over time”. The scientist added that there is another theory known as “Efecto Cohorte” (Cohort effect) that explains the high quantities of these substances in older people. According to this theory, those born in periods of higher contamination suffered the consequences more than those born with the current bans on such pesticides.

The impact of diet

This study indicates that diet is an important factor in POC concentration, as the ingestion of some aliments, particularly those of animal origin and high fat content, triggers a greater presence of these toxic substances in the human organism.Juan Pedro Arrebola Moreno states, “There are few studies in Spain measuring POC levels in wide samples of the population, which means that some compound levels in the general population are unknown”. Consequently, this study will improve the knowledge of such levels, and will identify those groups at higher risk of exposure, which is the first step for subsequent follow-up studies determining the cause-effect relations.This study is part of a project subsidized by the FIS (Sanitarian Investigation Fund) and by the Andalusian Regional Government, and in which the University of Granada, the Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública, and the Santa Ana and San Cecilio Hospitals take part.

Reference
Juan Pedro Arrebola Moreno.
Department of Radiology and Physical Medicine of the University of Granada.
Tfn: 958 242864.
Mobile phone: 636 380 300
Email address: juanpe000@hotmail.com

Global Warming Myth Buster

Have you ever been in a situation where you're talking with friends and the conversation turns to global warming? It's hard to be an expert. Sometimes it's hard to even show the slightest bit of concern without being met with with skepticism.

Compiled here are some of the most commonly heard myths explained.

"The current warming cycle is natural; the earth has been warming and cooling for millions of years."
What we are experiencing today is not natural. It's true the earth goes through long cycles of warm and cold periods due to small variations in the planet's tilt and rotation. But science tells us the climate change we are experiencing does not fit the planetary cycle. We are beyond anything the planetary cycle would account for.

"A temperature rise of 1 degree is inconsequential, and the predicted rise of 2-3 degrees is barely anything."
Actually 1 degree C (1.7 F) of average temperature increase already is causing sea level to rise and ecosystems to shift. And, temperatures are rising faster at the poles, with more severe consequences such as the rapid melting of polar ice caps. A degree or two more will only make these impacts worse.

"Humans are only responsible for a small amount of the carbon dioxide that goes into the atmosphere each year, so the warming must be natural."
Human activity is releasing carbon that has been trapped in the ground for millions of years and is upsetting the balance of the Carbon Cycle. Unlike when the Pilgrims landed at Plymouth Rock, today people annually release 7 gigatons of CO2, largely a result of burning fossil fuels, which has increased the CO2 in the atmosphere by 37% in 200 years.

"The warming we have seen is due mostly to the sun."
For the last 30 years, while the earth's temperature has been rapidly rising, the sun has shown no trend of increased solar radiation. There simply isn't any reliable study showing the sun's intensity has increased, causing the climate to warm.

"We cannot even accurately predict the weather a week from now, how can we believe we can predict what will happen 50 years from today?"
”Weather" and "climate" are very different terms. A weather prediction is a short term outlook of an hour, a day or perhaps a week. Predicting weather is often challenging because temperature, precipitation and other factors are constantly changing. Analysis of the climate, however, involves studying weather patterns over months, seasons, decades, or even centuries. Long-term climate analysis helps determine activities such as what crops to plant for a given region and when to harvest them. Future climate projections are based on historical data.

"Scientists only have 145 years of temperature data; this is not enough long enough to draw accurate conclusions."
More information on past conditions exists than modern human measurements. Humans have been tracking direct temperature measurements for the last 145 years with the use of thermometers and satellites. Scientists are also able to measure past temperatures going back many thousands of years with a high degree of accuracy from ice core and ocean floor samples.

"Ice is building up in central Antarctica, so global warming is not happening."
Ice is building up in central Antarctica, but being lost on the edges and being lost very rapidly in Greenland. The loss of ice from Greenland has doubled in the past 10 years, and Antarctic glaciers have been retreating over the past half century. There are some reports of "Antarctic cooling," but cooling in one region does not change the fact that globally, temperatures are rising.

"In the 1970s scientists were predicting a coming ice age. Now they turn around and say the globe is warming."
Unfortunately, this myth is a product of the popular press in the 1970s misinterpreting scientific findings. There was no widespread belief among scientists at the time that we were entering a period of cooling.

"During the 1940s and 1950s the earth's temperature went down, even while CO2 rose. Therefore, CO2 is not connected to global warming."
The scientific community now understands that air pollution (dust, smoke, chemicals) was masking the impact of increased greenhouse gases. Also, the amount of increased CO2 was much less as recently as three or four decades ago.

"The U.S. is actually a net sink (or absorber) of CO2."
The U.S. emits one-third of all CO2 today. A small amount is absorbed by soil annually, but it does not offset the release from burning fossil fuels.

"The 'hockey stick' graph, which is the basis for the claim of global warming, is proven to be flawed."
Scientists have used thousands of independent pieces of evidence gathered over decades to determine that global warming is primarily a result of human activities. So it is wholly false to argue that one graph is the basis for global warming. The "hockey stick" controversy is a complicated issue revolving around statistics and modeling techniques.

Download the Myth Buster Fact Sheet (pdf)

When Did the First Human Appear on Earth?

It sounds like a natural question, right? My parents are human... and my grandparents are also human... and my grandparents’ parents are human, too... But if we go back in time like this, when does the chain of our ancestors end? If we were created, as for example the Bible says, then of course the chain ends at our creation point. But suppose for a moment that we were not created at a point in time as the Bible tells us, but evolved rather gradually, as science tells us — then what? The chain can’t go backwards forever, because we know there were no human beings, for example, 1 million years ago.(1) So? Doesn’t there have to be a First Human even in the case of evolution, a pair perhaps — an “Adam” and an “Eve” — who became the progenitors of our kind? Doesn’t the biblical story have to be true anyway?

Some readers who have read this other page of mine, on the origins of life, have contacted me asking the above question. In that page I state that there was no first living being, and I try to explain why. Nonetheless, some readers disagree, and argue for the creation of the First Human even under the assumption of evolution, as I just explained in the previous paragraph. They see the conclusion as necessarily following by common sense and pure logic. I would like to show in the present page how it can be logically possible that there was no First Human. The reasoning is simple, but we need an analogy to make it easier to understand.

Let’s think about something related: the evolution of a language instead of the evolution of humans. Let’s use a particular language as an example: the evolution of Greek, from the ancient, to the modern language. (Don’t worry, you don’t need to know a single word of that language to understand this analogy, guaranteed! ) I’ll tell you how Greek evolved from ancient to modern, without ever having a “first modern Greek speaker”. What we’ll learn about Greek is true for every other language that evolved from an older to a later stage (including English, for example), but I prefer Greek because I am more familiar with the evolution facts of that language, and so I will not make false statements. But the point is that, not only it doesn’t matter which language we use as example, but also the analogy carries over to what we are interested at: just as there was no first speaker of a modern language, there was no First Human either. And the analogy is true even in some of its details! Let’s see first what happened to speakers of Greek.

Look at the figure above. Time runs from left to right. The green color is the time when speakers of Greek were speaking the ancient language, and the blue color is for speakers of the modern language. Underneath the colored band I drew a large number of very short vertical lines, each of which is supposed to represent one individual. A single line is one person, and the line to its left is one of this person’s parents, whereas the line to its right is one of this person’s children. There should be many more lines, actually, but there is not enough horizontal space to make the drawing realistic. (Other things are not realistic either, such as the lengths of the ancient and modern stages — but realism is not necessary here.)

Now, let’s see what we have. Each person’s “color” corresponds to the particular version of Greek that the person was speaking. The difference between colors shows how different the versions were. For example, “very green” means “typical ancient Greek”, and “very blue” means “typical modern Greek”. Somewhere in-between there is a region where the language changes. The change is smooth, but also somewhat sudden, if we look at the overall picture. Indeed, since around 300 BC, after Alexander’s death (that’s Alexander III the Great, king of Macedon), until around a couple of centuries after Christ, the change was complete. The historical reasons for the change do not concern us here.(2) What concerns us is the color. Notice this property of the color:

Every parent has a color which is very similar to the color of his/her children. Indeed, from parent to child, the difference seems imperceptible. In language terms, every parent speaks almost the same language like their children. There is some difference, but it is so imperceptible that neither the parent nor the child notice it. (It could be a few words with a different meaning, some new syntactic structure that the child uses, some imperceptible difference in pronouncing a vowel, and so on.) As a result, they can communicate with each other perfectly: the parent understands perfectly the child, and the child understands perfectly the parent.

But now look what happens if we take an ancestor-descendant pair that do not have an immediate parent-child relationship. How much they could understand each other (if they had lived at the same time) depends on how much they differ in color; not on how distant they were in time. For example, we can take two ancient people, both in the very green area on the left, but differing by several centuries from each other — let’s say 800 years. These two people would understand each other, if they could somehow miraculously be brought together. But if we take a pair where the ancestor is from around 300 BC, and the descendant from around 200 AD (making a difference of 500 years), these two people would not be able to communicate (or, in reality, the communication would be extremely limited).

Is there any point in time that we can single out and say, “There! That’s when the first speaker of modern Greek appeared”? Of course not. There is a smooth change, not an abrupt appearance of the first modern Greek speaker. But even though every parent can communicate with their children (and with their grandchildren, clearly), still, the change within those centuries is such that the ancient speaker would not be able to communicate with the modern one, if they could be brought together in time.

Exactly the same idea can be carried over to the notion of change from our ancestor species Homo erectus (that corresponds to “ancient Greek”) to our own species, Homo sapiens (that corresponds to “modern Greek”). Let’s take a look at the following figure.

Is anything different between this figure and the previous? Not really. Only the terms have been changed. And the important points in our analogy are the following:

What was previously language, now corresponds to the DNA of an individual;and the ability to communicate between two individuals corresponds tothe ability to mate and produce fertile children.

So, if we take any two individuals from among “our kind”, Homo sapiens, which is the clear red region, no matter how distant in time, these two individuals would be able to produce fertile children after mating (assuming they were a man and a woman), because their DNA’s would be sufficiently similar. The same thing would happen if we took two individuals of our ancestor species, Homo erectus, from the clear magenta region in the figure. Again, the DNA’s of these two individuals, no matter how distant in time, would be sufficiently similar to allow the birth of fertile children. That’s why we say these two belong to the same species, H. erectus, and those two belong to another species, H. sapiens. But if we take one “purple” and one “red” individual, their DNA’s would be different enough to not allow fertile children to be born. It could be that the chances to succeed in having a healthy child would be nearly zero (say, one in a million). Or, that sometimes children would be born, but those children would be unable to have children of their own, so they would be sterile, “dead ends” as far as propagation of genes is concerned.

Nonetheless, the magenta region does not change sharply to red, but gradually. There is never any “First Red” individual. If we take any two opposite-sex individuals that belong to succesive generations (but not to the same family obviously, avoiding incest), these two individuals (one from the parent’s generation and the other from the child’s generation) would be able to mate and produce fertile children. They would belong to the “same kind”, even if they were taken from the transitional time of around 200,000 to 150,000 years ago, because their DNA’s would be sufficiently close.

How do we know all this? How sure are scientists that the above is true? Have we ever examined the DNA of a H. erectus, and compared it with the DNA of a modern human?

No, no one has retrieved DNA from fossil bones as old as those of H. erectus. The oldest DNA that has been retrieved at the time this text was written (ca. 2005) is a few tens of thousand years old. But paleoanthropologists (scientists who study the origins of the human kind) examine fossils, and are experienced enough to tell with some confidence when a skeleton should belong to one species, and when to another. In reality, we will be nearly 100% certain only when we obtain the DNA of a H. erectus individual, and this will take time, because the older the fossil the more improbable it is that the DNA has been preserved somewhere. But it is not impossible to find it, somewhere on this planet. Perhaps deep frozen under the vast unexplored ice sheets of Siberia (if H. erectus ever reached there).

But suppose that we find such a DNA molecule, and after we compare it with a modern DNA molecule we realize — to our surprise — that in fact the two DNA’s are similar enough to qualify as “same species”: the two individuals would in principle be able to have fertile children after mating. Would this discovery demolish the explanation presented in the previous paragraphs, about the nonexistence of a “First Human”?

Not at all. Such a discovery would simply push the species-distinction era further back in time. All right, so it would not be what we call H. erectus the species of which we would have the honor to be the descendants. We would be the same species with them, in that case. So? There would be another species, further back in time, that would have sufficiently different DNA to disallow mating and production of offspring with “us”. But still the change between that species and the erectus-sapiens species would be gradual-and-yet-abrupt, as the figure with the magenta and red colors depicts it. And so, still there would be no “First Human”.

This notion of “gradual-and-yet-abrupt” change, by the way, is a hard one to grasp, because the words sound self-contradictory: is it gradual, or is it abrupt? But I think the colored figures, above, depict in a nice way how the change can be both gradual and abrupt, without any contradiction:

The change is gradual because between any two successive generations the difference (in DNA, in language structure) is minimal; so, successive generations can “communicate” (pass on their genes, mutually understand their ideas). Thus, the change is gradual when we take the magnifying glass and look at it from up close.
But the change is also abrupt when viewed at a larger scale: for a very long time, there is almost no change at all (same species, same language), which is called stasis in biology; but within a very short period of time (“short” relatively speaking), changes occur and accumulate “fast”, and we arrive at a different “kind” (another species, another language). The change is abrupt when we zoom out and look at the overall picture from afar, taking a bird-eye view.

YouTube Link To Finland School Shootings

A pupil at a school in Finland has gone on a shooting rampage - reportedly killing eight people.
It happened hours after a video was posted on YouTube predicting a massacre.

The gunman is believed to be in hospital and the climbing death toll has yet to be confirmed.
A journalist from the Helsinki Sanomat, Kari Raisanen, told Sky News: "So far the only thing the police have confirmed is there are dead people."

He added: "We know a student started shooting around midday and there's chaos. Nobody knows exactly what's happening inside. Some say the principal is dead, but that's unconfirmed."

The first reports from the Tuusula municipality, some 40 miles from the Finnish capital Helsinki, claimed at least three people had been wounded.
The YouTube video, set to hard-driving music, shows a still photo of a school that appears to be Jokela High School, where the shootings occurred.
The photo then fragments to reveal a red-tinted photo of a man pointing a gun at the camera.

It is entitled "Jokela High School Massacre - 11/7/2007" and was posted by a user called Sturmgeist89. "Sturmgeist" means storm spirit in German.
However, it was not clear whether the person in the video was the person who carried out the shootings.

A teacher at the scene told the Reuters news agency the gunman was a pupil at the school.
Teacher Kim Kiuru, who was teaching at the time, said: "It felt unreal, a pupil I have taught myself was running towards me, screaming, a pistol in his hand.

"He was moving systematically through the school hallways, knocking on the doors and shooting through the doors."
Kiuru said he helped his pupils escape through the classroom window.

Junior Constable Olli Laine said police had surrounded the building, which houses both a middle school and high school, and were evacuating students.

Despite having the third-largest per capita ratio of handgun ownership in the world, violent incidents are rare at Finnish schools.

According to Finnish media, there have been four stabbings at schools since 1999, but none of these caused fatalities.

The last major attack in the country came in 2002, when a young man killed himself and six others in a bomb blast at a shopping mall in Helsinki.

Watch The YouTube Video Threat -

At least seven people have been shot dead at a school in southern Finland. It happened just hours after a video was posted on social networking website YouTube apparently warning of a massacre. This is believed to be that video.

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Excitement over discovery of new planet

- Search: 55 Cancri
- NASA's website
- Check your stars

The discovery of a fifth planet circling a star beyond our solar system marks "an exciting next step in the search for worlds like our own", astronomers say.

The new planet has nearly the same mass and age as our sun, is "easily visible'' with binoculars, and is located in a so-called "habitable zone'', a band around the star where the temperature would permit liquid water to pool on solid surfaces, Nasa said.

The space agency said the star, 55 Cancri, now holds the record for the number of confirmed extra-solar planets orbiting around it in a system.

Debra Fischer, lead author of a paper that will appear in a future issue of the Astrophysical Journal, said: "This is the first quintuple-planet system.

"This work marks an exciting next step in the search for worlds like our own"
- Astronomer

"This system has a dominant gas giant planet in an orbit similar to our Jupiter. Like the planets orbiting our sun, most of these planets reside in nearly circular orbits.''

Weighing 45 times the mass of the Earth, the new planet may be similar to Saturn in its composition and appearance, and completes one orbit every 260 days, a Nasa spokesman said.
Located 41 light-years away in the constellation Cancer, with nearly the same mass and age as our sun, the new planet is "easily visible'' with binoculars, Nasa said.

Researchers discovered the planet using the Doppler technique, in which a planet's gravitational tug is detected by the wobble it produces in the parent star.

The distance from its star is about 72.5m miles, slightly closer than Earth to our sun, but it orbits a star that is slightly fainter.

Michael Briley, an astronomer at the National Science Foundation in Virginia, said: "This work marks an exciting next step in the search for worlds like our own.

"To go from the first detections of planets around sun-like stars to finding a full-fledged solar system with a planet in a habitable zone in just 12 years is an amazing accomplishment and a testament to the years of hard work put in by these investigators.''

Astronomer Geoff Marcy, of the University of California, Berkeley, said the discovery of five extra-solar planets orbiting a star was "only one small step", adding: "Earth-like planets are the next destination.''