One more big hurricane predicted by November

Team's forecast is slightly downgraded but 'very active' weeks likely

FORT COLLINS, Colo. - A prominent university research team on Tuesday slightly downgraded their forecast for what's left of the Atlantic season, calling for four named storms in October and November, including two hurricanes, one of them major.

The Colorado State University group had predicted five named storms in their earlier forecast for the two months.

“We expect October-November to be very active,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the hurricane forecast.

In April, the team had predicted a “very active” 2007 season, with 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, with five of them major hurricanes.

As of Oct. 1, a total of 13 named storms had developed, including four hurricanes. Two of the hurricanes were major.

The team revises its forecast throughout the hurricane season, which lasts from June through November.

“August had somewhat above-average activity — about 130 percent of average — while September had about average activity — about 92 percent of average,” Klotzbach said.

Eight named storms formed in September in the Atlantic basin, tying a record set in 2002 for the most in that month.

But measured by the combined strength and duration of those storms, this September was actually the least active in the Atlantic since 1997, the National Hurricane Center said. That is because most of the September storms were weak and short lived.

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The team is led by Bill Gray, who has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades. Its predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others in coastal areas.

In 2006, the team forecast nine hurricanes, five of them major. Instead, there were just five hurricanes, two of them major.


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