Sea levels in the Thames estuary are likely to rise by up to 90cm by the end of the century, scientists said.
Research for the Environment Agency predicted likely sea level rises of between 8in (20cm) and 35in (90cm) as a result of melting glaciers and polar ice-caps and warming of the oceans.
At the most extreme, sea levels could rise by up to 6ft (2m) - which along with a storm surge could produce a worst case scenario of a water level rise of 9ft (2.7m), the Met Office said.
This new worst-case prediction is significantly lower than previous scenarios of rises of up to 14ft (4.2m) - which means an outer barrage in the Thames estuary to keep the tide out will not be necessary to protect the South East this century.
The research also found climate change was less likely to increase the frequency and size of storm surges in the North Sea than previously thought.
The research by the Met Office Hadley Centre, the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology was released at a climate change conference at the University of Exeter.
The study said the volume of freshwater at peak times in the River Thames could increase by around 40% by 2080 in places such as Kingston.
The research will feed into the Environment Agency's Thames Estuary 2100 project to plan for future flood management in the estuary.
Tim Reeder, regional climate change programme manager for the Environment Agency Thames region, said: "By narrowing previous uncertainty, we now have an improved understanding of how climate change will affect the Thames estuary and can develop realistic and cost-effective options, which will meet future needs."
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